Nobel Symposium on Inequality 2022
What Have We (Not) Learned About Taxes and Transfers in the Last Twenty-Five Years?
Stockholm, August 2022
Zeuthen Lectures 2021
Lecture 1: The Child Penalty
| YouTube Video |
Lecture 2: The Geography of Child Penalties
| YouTube Video |
Lecture 3: Public Policy and Child Penalties
| YouTube Video |
Working Papers
NEW The Geography of Child Penalties and Gender Norms: Evidence from the United States
NBER Working Paper #30176, January 2023
| Slides | Replication Files |
The EITC and the Extensive Margin: A Reappraisal
NBER Working Paper #26405, March 2023
| Slides | Replication Files | Tax Rate Series | Press: Vox, The Wall Street Journal |
Do Family Policies Reduce Gender Inequality? Evidence from 60 Years of Policy Experimentation
(with Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer, and Josef Zweimuller), NBER Working Paper #28082, August 2022
Language Trends in Public Economics
Slides, July 2018
| Excel Data File | Press: Bloomberg |
Optimal Income Taxation with Career Effects of Work Effort
(with Michael Best), Working Paper, February 2013
Published Papers
Does Biology Drive Child Penalties? Evidence from Biological and Adoptive Families
(with Camille Landais and Jakob Egholt Sogaard), American Economic Review: Insights 3, 183-198, 2021
Sufficient Statistics Revisited
Annual Review of Economics 13, 515-538, 2021
| Slides |
Do People Respond to the Mortgage Interest Deduction? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Denmark
(with Jonathan Gruber and Amalie Sofie Jensen), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13(2), 273-303, 2021
| Press: The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal |
The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis: Evidence From an Immigrant Welfare Scheme in Denmark
(with Ole Agersnap and Amalie Sofie Jensen), American Economic Review: Insights 2, 527-542, 2020
Technology and Big Data Are Changing Economics: Mining Text to Track Methods
(with Janet Currie and Esmée Zwiers), AEA Papers & Proceedings 110, 42-48, 2020
Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications
(with Camille Landais, Mathilde Munoz, and Stefanie Stantcheva), Journal of Economic Perspectives 34(2), 119-142, 2020
Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches
(with Michael Best, James Cloyne, and Ethan Ilzetzki), Review of Economic Studies 87, 656-690, 2020
Wealth Taxation and Wealth Accumulation: Theory and Evidence from Denmark
(with Katrine Jakobsen, Kristian Jakobsen, and Gabriel Zucman), Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, 329-388, 2020
The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach
(with James Cloyne, Kilian Huber, and Ethan Ilzetzki), American Economic Review 109, 2104-2136, 2019
| VoxEU |
Child Penalties Across Countries: Evidence and Explanations
(with Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer, and Josef Zweimuller), AEA Papers & Proceedings 109, 122-126, 2019
| VoxEU |
Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark
(with Camille Landais and Jakob Egholt Sogaard), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 11, 181-209, 2019
Recipient of the AEJ Best Paper Award 2020
| Press: The New York Times, The Economist, Slate, Vox, Quartz | NETFLIX Documentary | VoxEU | NBER WP |
Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence from Notches and Stimulus in the UK
(with Michael Best), Review of Economic Studies 85, 157–193, 2018
| Slides | Animations | Microeconomic Insights | Press: The Economist |
Gender Inequality and Economic Development: Fertility, Education, and Norms
(with Camille Landais), Economica 84, 180-209, 2017
A Characteristics Approach to Optimal Taxation: Line Drawing and Tax-Driven Product Innovation
(with Christian Gillitzer and Joel Slemrod), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 119, 240–267, 2017
Bunching
Annual Review of Economics 8, 435-464, 2016
| Slides | Technical Note: Reduced-Form Elasticities |
Extrinsic and Intrinsic Motivations for Tax Compliance: Evidence From a Field Experiment in Germany
(with Nadja Dwenger, Imran Rasul and Johannes Rincke), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 8(3), 203-232, 2016
Why Can Modern Governments Tax So Much? An Agency Model of Firms as Fiscal Intermediaries
(with Claus Kreiner and Emmanuel Saez), Economica 83, 219-246, 2016
| NBER WP |
Production vs Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan
(with Michael Best, Anne Brockmeyer, Johannes Spinnewijn and Mazhar Waseem), Journal of Political Economy 123(6), 1311-1355, 2015
| Slides | VoxEU | Microeconomic Insights |
How Can Scandinavians Tax So Much?
Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(4), 77-98, 2014
| Excel Data File | Data & Programs | Press: The New York Times, Financial Times |
Estimating Taxable Income Responses Using Danish Tax Reforms
(with Esben Schultz), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 6(4), 271-301, 2014
Migration and Wage Effects of Taxing Top Earners: Evidence from the Foreigners' Tax Scheme in Denmark
(with Camille Landais, Emmanuel Saez and Esben Schultz), Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, 333-378, 2014
| NBER WP | VoxEU |
Using Notches to Uncover Optimization Frictions and Structural Elasticities: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan
(with Mazhar Waseem), Quarterly Journal of Economics 128, 669-723, 2013
| Technical Note: Reduced-Form Elasticities |
Taxation and International Migration of Superstars: Evidence from the European Football Market
(with Camille Landais and Emmanuel Saez), American Economic Review 103, 1892-1924, 2013
| Slides | NBER WP | NBER Digest | VoxEU | Press: The Economist, Bloomberg, Pacific Standard, The New Republic |
Optimal Tax and Transfer Programs for Couples with Extensive Labor Supply Responses
(with Herwig Immervoll, Claus Kreiner and Nicolaj Verdelin), Journal of Public Economics 95, 1485-1500, 2011
Unwilling or Unable to Cheat? Evidence from a Tax Audit Experiment in Denmark
(with Martin Knudsen, Claus Kreiner, Soren Pedersen and Emmanuel Saez), Econometrica 79, 651-692, 2011
| NBER WP | NBER Digest |
Transfer Program Complexity and the Take Up of Social Benefits
(with Wojciech Kopczuk), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 3(1), 54-90, 2011
The Optimal Income Taxation of Couples
(with Claus Kreiner and Emmanuel Saez), Econometrica 77, 537-560, 2009
Evaluation of Four Tax Reforms in the United States: Labor Supply and Welfare Effects for Single Mothers
(with Nada Eissa and Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 92, 795-816, 2008
| NBER Digest |
Optimal Taxation of Married Couples with Household Production
(with Claus Kreiner), FinanzArchiv 63, 498-518, 2007
Welfare Reform in European Countries: A Microsimulation Analysis
(with Herwig Immervoll, Claus Kreiner and Emmanuel Saez), Economic Journal 117, 1-44, 2007
| Simulation Excel File | EJ Press Release |
The Marginal Cost of Public Funds: Hours of Work vs Labor Force Participation
(with Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 90, 1955-1973, 2006
| CEPR WP |
Welfare Effects of Tax Reform and Labor Supply at the Intensive and Extensive Margins
(with Nada Eissa and Claus Kreiner), in Jonas Agell and Peter Birch Sorensen (eds.), Tax Policy and Labor Market Performance, MIT Press: Cambridge, 147-185, 2006
Labor Supply Behavior and the Design of Tax and Transfer Policy
(with Claus Kreiner), Danish Journal of Economics 143, 321-358, 2005
Optimum Taxation and the Allocation of Time
Journal of Public Economics 88, 545-557, 2004
| EPRU WP |
Labour Tax Reform, The Good Jobs and The Bad Jobs
(with Peter Birch Sorensen), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 106, 45-64, 2004
The Role of Taxes as Automatic Destabilizers in New Keynesian Economics
(with Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 87, 1123-1136, 2003
Dual Labour Markets and Nominal Rigidity
(with Huw Dixon and Claus Kreiner), Oxford Economic Papers 54, 561-583, 2002
Optimal Taxation with Household Production
(with Wolfram Richter and Peter Birch Sorensen), Oxford Economic Papers 52, 584-594, 2000
Subsidising Consumer Services: Effects on Employment, Welfare and the Informal Economy
(with Niels Frederiksen, Peter Hansen and Peter Birch Sorensen), Fiscal Studies 16, 71-93, 1995
Unpublished Manuscripts
A Characteristics Approach to Optimal Taxation and Tax-Driven Product Innovation
(with Joel Slemrod), Working Paper, September 2009
The Optimal Income Taxation of Couples as a Multi-Dimensional Screening Problem
(with Claus Kreiner and Emmanuel Saez), CESifo Working Paper #2092, September 2007
The Taxation of Married Couples in OECD Countries: A Need for Reform?
(with Claus Kreiner), EPRU Working Paper #2002-13, July 2002
What Have We (Not) Learned About Taxes and Transfers in the Last Twenty-Five Years?
Stockholm, August 2022
Zeuthen Lectures 2021
Lecture 1: The Child Penalty
| YouTube Video |
Lecture 2: The Geography of Child Penalties
| YouTube Video |
Lecture 3: Public Policy and Child Penalties
| YouTube Video |
Working Papers
NEW The Geography of Child Penalties and Gender Norms: Evidence from the United States
NBER Working Paper #30176, January 2023
| Slides | Replication Files |
The EITC and the Extensive Margin: A Reappraisal
NBER Working Paper #26405, March 2023
| Slides | Replication Files | Tax Rate Series | Press: Vox, The Wall Street Journal |
Do Family Policies Reduce Gender Inequality? Evidence from 60 Years of Policy Experimentation
(with Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer, and Josef Zweimuller), NBER Working Paper #28082, August 2022
Language Trends in Public Economics
Slides, July 2018
| Excel Data File | Press: Bloomberg |
Optimal Income Taxation with Career Effects of Work Effort
(with Michael Best), Working Paper, February 2013
Published Papers
Does Biology Drive Child Penalties? Evidence from Biological and Adoptive Families
(with Camille Landais and Jakob Egholt Sogaard), American Economic Review: Insights 3, 183-198, 2021
Sufficient Statistics Revisited
Annual Review of Economics 13, 515-538, 2021
| Slides |
Do People Respond to the Mortgage Interest Deduction? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Denmark
(with Jonathan Gruber and Amalie Sofie Jensen), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13(2), 273-303, 2021
| Press: The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal |
The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis: Evidence From an Immigrant Welfare Scheme in Denmark
(with Ole Agersnap and Amalie Sofie Jensen), American Economic Review: Insights 2, 527-542, 2020
Technology and Big Data Are Changing Economics: Mining Text to Track Methods
(with Janet Currie and Esmée Zwiers), AEA Papers & Proceedings 110, 42-48, 2020
Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications
(with Camille Landais, Mathilde Munoz, and Stefanie Stantcheva), Journal of Economic Perspectives 34(2), 119-142, 2020
Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches
(with Michael Best, James Cloyne, and Ethan Ilzetzki), Review of Economic Studies 87, 656-690, 2020
Wealth Taxation and Wealth Accumulation: Theory and Evidence from Denmark
(with Katrine Jakobsen, Kristian Jakobsen, and Gabriel Zucman), Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, 329-388, 2020
The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach
(with James Cloyne, Kilian Huber, and Ethan Ilzetzki), American Economic Review 109, 2104-2136, 2019
| VoxEU |
Child Penalties Across Countries: Evidence and Explanations
(with Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer, and Josef Zweimuller), AEA Papers & Proceedings 109, 122-126, 2019
| VoxEU |
Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark
(with Camille Landais and Jakob Egholt Sogaard), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 11, 181-209, 2019
Recipient of the AEJ Best Paper Award 2020
| Press: The New York Times, The Economist, Slate, Vox, Quartz | NETFLIX Documentary | VoxEU | NBER WP |
Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence from Notches and Stimulus in the UK
(with Michael Best), Review of Economic Studies 85, 157–193, 2018
| Slides | Animations | Microeconomic Insights | Press: The Economist |
Gender Inequality and Economic Development: Fertility, Education, and Norms
(with Camille Landais), Economica 84, 180-209, 2017
A Characteristics Approach to Optimal Taxation: Line Drawing and Tax-Driven Product Innovation
(with Christian Gillitzer and Joel Slemrod), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 119, 240–267, 2017
Bunching
Annual Review of Economics 8, 435-464, 2016
| Slides | Technical Note: Reduced-Form Elasticities |
Extrinsic and Intrinsic Motivations for Tax Compliance: Evidence From a Field Experiment in Germany
(with Nadja Dwenger, Imran Rasul and Johannes Rincke), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 8(3), 203-232, 2016
Why Can Modern Governments Tax So Much? An Agency Model of Firms as Fiscal Intermediaries
(with Claus Kreiner and Emmanuel Saez), Economica 83, 219-246, 2016
| NBER WP |
Production vs Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan
(with Michael Best, Anne Brockmeyer, Johannes Spinnewijn and Mazhar Waseem), Journal of Political Economy 123(6), 1311-1355, 2015
| Slides | VoxEU | Microeconomic Insights |
How Can Scandinavians Tax So Much?
Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(4), 77-98, 2014
| Excel Data File | Data & Programs | Press: The New York Times, Financial Times |
Estimating Taxable Income Responses Using Danish Tax Reforms
(with Esben Schultz), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 6(4), 271-301, 2014
Migration and Wage Effects of Taxing Top Earners: Evidence from the Foreigners' Tax Scheme in Denmark
(with Camille Landais, Emmanuel Saez and Esben Schultz), Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, 333-378, 2014
| NBER WP | VoxEU |
Using Notches to Uncover Optimization Frictions and Structural Elasticities: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan
(with Mazhar Waseem), Quarterly Journal of Economics 128, 669-723, 2013
| Technical Note: Reduced-Form Elasticities |
Taxation and International Migration of Superstars: Evidence from the European Football Market
(with Camille Landais and Emmanuel Saez), American Economic Review 103, 1892-1924, 2013
| Slides | NBER WP | NBER Digest | VoxEU | Press: The Economist, Bloomberg, Pacific Standard, The New Republic |
Optimal Tax and Transfer Programs for Couples with Extensive Labor Supply Responses
(with Herwig Immervoll, Claus Kreiner and Nicolaj Verdelin), Journal of Public Economics 95, 1485-1500, 2011
Unwilling or Unable to Cheat? Evidence from a Tax Audit Experiment in Denmark
(with Martin Knudsen, Claus Kreiner, Soren Pedersen and Emmanuel Saez), Econometrica 79, 651-692, 2011
| NBER WP | NBER Digest |
Transfer Program Complexity and the Take Up of Social Benefits
(with Wojciech Kopczuk), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 3(1), 54-90, 2011
The Optimal Income Taxation of Couples
(with Claus Kreiner and Emmanuel Saez), Econometrica 77, 537-560, 2009
Evaluation of Four Tax Reforms in the United States: Labor Supply and Welfare Effects for Single Mothers
(with Nada Eissa and Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 92, 795-816, 2008
| NBER Digest |
Optimal Taxation of Married Couples with Household Production
(with Claus Kreiner), FinanzArchiv 63, 498-518, 2007
Welfare Reform in European Countries: A Microsimulation Analysis
(with Herwig Immervoll, Claus Kreiner and Emmanuel Saez), Economic Journal 117, 1-44, 2007
| Simulation Excel File | EJ Press Release |
The Marginal Cost of Public Funds: Hours of Work vs Labor Force Participation
(with Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 90, 1955-1973, 2006
| CEPR WP |
Welfare Effects of Tax Reform and Labor Supply at the Intensive and Extensive Margins
(with Nada Eissa and Claus Kreiner), in Jonas Agell and Peter Birch Sorensen (eds.), Tax Policy and Labor Market Performance, MIT Press: Cambridge, 147-185, 2006
Labor Supply Behavior and the Design of Tax and Transfer Policy
(with Claus Kreiner), Danish Journal of Economics 143, 321-358, 2005
Optimum Taxation and the Allocation of Time
Journal of Public Economics 88, 545-557, 2004
| EPRU WP |
Labour Tax Reform, The Good Jobs and The Bad Jobs
(with Peter Birch Sorensen), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 106, 45-64, 2004
The Role of Taxes as Automatic Destabilizers in New Keynesian Economics
(with Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 87, 1123-1136, 2003
Dual Labour Markets and Nominal Rigidity
(with Huw Dixon and Claus Kreiner), Oxford Economic Papers 54, 561-583, 2002
Optimal Taxation with Household Production
(with Wolfram Richter and Peter Birch Sorensen), Oxford Economic Papers 52, 584-594, 2000
Subsidising Consumer Services: Effects on Employment, Welfare and the Informal Economy
(with Niels Frederiksen, Peter Hansen and Peter Birch Sorensen), Fiscal Studies 16, 71-93, 1995
Unpublished Manuscripts
A Characteristics Approach to Optimal Taxation and Tax-Driven Product Innovation
(with Joel Slemrod), Working Paper, September 2009
The Optimal Income Taxation of Couples as a Multi-Dimensional Screening Problem
(with Claus Kreiner and Emmanuel Saez), CESifo Working Paper #2092, September 2007
The Taxation of Married Couples in OECD Countries: A Need for Reform?
(with Claus Kreiner), EPRU Working Paper #2002-13, July 2002