Working Papers
NEW Micro vs Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: The Role of Dynamic Returns to Effort
(with Claus Kreiner, Kristian Larsen & Jakob Sogaard), NBER Working Paper #31549, April 2024
NEW Taxing Top Wealth: Migration Responses and their Aggregate Economic Implications
(with Katrine Jakobsen, Jonas Kolsrud, Camille Landais & Mathilde Munoz), NBER Working Paper #32153, February 2024
REVISED The Geography of Child Penalties and Gender Norms: A Pseudo-Event Study Approach
NBER Working Paper #30176, December 2023
| Slides | Replication Files |
Language Trends in Public Economics
Slides, July 2018
| Excel Data File | Press: Bloomberg |
Optimal Income Taxation with Career Effects of Work Effort
(with Michael Best), Working Paper, February 2013
Published Papers
The Child Penalty Atlas
(with Camille Landais & Gabriel Leite-Mariante), Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming
Atlas Website: childpenaltyatlas.org
| NBER Digest | Press: The Economist |
The EITC and the Extensive Margin: A Reappraisal
Journal of Public Economics, forthcoming
| Slides | Replication Files | Tax Rate Series | Press: Vox, The Wall Street Journal |
Do Family Policies Reduce Gender Inequality? Evidence from 60 Years of Policy Experimentation
(with Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimuller), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 16(2), 110-149, 2024
Does Biology Drive Child Penalties? Evidence from Biological and Adoptive Families
(with Camille Landais & Jakob Sogaard), American Economic Review: Insights 3, 183-198, 2021
Sufficient Statistics Revisited
Annual Review of Economics 13, 515-538, 2021
| Slides |
Do People Respond to the Mortgage Interest Deduction? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Denmark
(with Jonathan Gruber & Amalie Sofie Jensen), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13(2), 273-303, 2021
| Press: The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal |
The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis: Evidence From an Immigrant Welfare Scheme in Denmark
(with Ole Agersnap & Amalie Sofie Jensen), American Economic Review: Insights 2, 527-542, 2020
Technology and Big Data Are Changing Economics: Mining Text to Track Methods
(with Janet Currie & Esmée Zwiers), AEA Papers & Proceedings 110, 42-48, 2020
Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications
(with Camille Landais, Mathilde Munoz & Stefanie Stantcheva), Journal of Economic Perspectives 34(2), 119-142, 2020
Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches
(with Michael Best, James Cloyne & Ethan Ilzetzki), Review of Economic Studies 87, 656-690, 2020
Wealth Taxation and Wealth Accumulation: Theory and Evidence from Denmark
(with Katrine Jakobsen, Kristian Jakobsen & Gabriel Zucman), Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, 329-388, 2020
The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach
(with James Cloyne, Kilian Huber & Ethan Ilzetzki), American Economic Review 109, 2104-2136, 2019
| VoxEU |
Child Penalties Across Countries: Evidence and Explanations
(with Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimuller), AEA Papers & Proceedings 109, 122-126, 2019
| VoxEU |
Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark
(with Camille Landais & Jakob Sogaard), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 11, 181-209, 2019
Recipient of the AEJ Best Paper Award 2020
| NBER WP | VoxEU | Press: The New York Times, The Economist, Slate, Vox, Quartz | NETFLIX Documentary |
Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence from Notches and Stimulus in the UK
(with Michael Best), Review of Economic Studies 85, 157–193, 2018
| Slides | Animations | Microeconomic Insights | Press: The Economist |
Gender Inequality and Economic Development: Fertility, Education, and Norms
(with Camille Landais), Economica 84, 180-209, 2017
A Characteristics Approach to Optimal Taxation: Line Drawing and Tax-Driven Product Innovation
(with Christian Gillitzer & Joel Slemrod), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 119, 240–267, 2017
Bunching
Annual Review of Economics 8, 435-464, 2016
| Slides | Technical Note: Reduced-Form Elasticities |
Extrinsic and Intrinsic Motivations for Tax Compliance: Evidence From a Field Experiment in Germany
(with Nadja Dwenger, Imran Rasul & Johannes Rincke), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 8(3), 203-232, 2016
Why Can Modern Governments Tax So Much? An Agency Model of Firms as Fiscal Intermediaries
(with Claus Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez), Economica 83, 219-246, 2016
| NBER WP |
Production vs Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan
(with Michael Best, Anne Brockmeyer, Johannes Spinnewijn & Mazhar Waseem), Journal of Political Economy 123(6), 1311-1355, 2015
| Slides | VoxEU | Microeconomic Insights |
How Can Scandinavians Tax So Much?
Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(4), 77-98, 2014
| Excel Data File | Data & Programs | Press: The New York Times, Financial Times |
Estimating Taxable Income Responses Using Danish Tax Reforms
(with Esben Schultz), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 6(4), 271-301, 2014
Migration and Wage Effects of Taxing Top Earners: Evidence from the Foreigners' Tax Scheme in Denmark
(with Camille Landais, Emmanuel Saez & Esben Schultz), Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, 333-378, 2014
| NBER WP | VoxEU |
Using Notches to Uncover Optimization Frictions and Structural Elasticities: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan
(with Mazhar Waseem), Quarterly Journal of Economics 128, 669-723, 2013
| Technical Note: Reduced-Form Elasticities |
Taxation and International Migration of Superstars: Evidence from the European Football Market
(with Camille Landais & Emmanuel Saez), American Economic Review 103, 1892-1924, 2013
| NBER WP | NBER Digest | Slides | VoxEU | Press: The Economist, Bloomberg, Pacific Standard, The New Republic |
Optimal Tax and Transfer Programs for Couples with Extensive Labor Supply Responses
(with Herwig Immervoll, Claus Kreiner & Nicolaj Verdelin), Journal of Public Economics 95, 1485-1500, 2011
Unwilling or Unable to Cheat? Evidence from a Tax Audit Experiment in Denmark
(with Martin Knudsen, Claus Kreiner, Soren Pedersen & Emmanuel Saez), Econometrica 79, 651-692, 2011
| NBER WP | NBER Digest |
Transfer Program Complexity and the Take Up of Social Benefits
(with Wojciech Kopczuk), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 3(1), 54-90, 2011
The Optimal Income Taxation of Couples
(with Claus Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez), Econometrica 77, 537-560, 2009
Evaluation of Four Tax Reforms in the United States: Labor Supply and Welfare Effects for Single Mothers
(with Nada Eissa & Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 92, 795-816, 2008
| NBER Digest |
Optimal Taxation of Married Couples with Household Production
(with Claus Kreiner), FinanzArchiv 63, 498-518, 2007
Welfare Reform in European Countries: A Microsimulation Analysis
(with Herwig Immervoll, Claus Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez), Economic Journal 117, 1-44, 2007
| Simulation Excel File | EJ Press Release |
The Marginal Cost of Public Funds: Hours of Work vs Labor Force Participation
(with Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 90, 1955-1973, 2006
| CEPR WP |
Welfare Effects of Tax Reform and Labor Supply at the Intensive and Extensive Margins
(with Nada Eissa & Claus Kreiner), in Jonas Agell and Peter Birch Sorensen (eds.), Tax Policy and Labor Market Performance, MIT Press: Cambridge, 147-185, 2006
Labor Supply Behavior and the Design of Tax and Transfer Policy
(with Claus Kreiner), Danish Journal of Economics 143, 321-358, 2005
Optimum Taxation and the Allocation of Time
Journal of Public Economics 88, 545-557, 2004
| EPRU WP |
Labour Tax Reform, The Good Jobs and The Bad Jobs
(with Peter Birch Sorensen), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 106, 45-64, 2004
The Role of Taxes as Automatic Destabilizers in New Keynesian Economics
(with Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 87, 1123-1136, 2003
Dual Labour Markets and Nominal Rigidity
(with Huw Dixon & Claus Kreiner), Oxford Economic Papers 54, 561-583, 2002
Optimal Taxation with Household Production
(with Wolfram Richter & Peter Birch Sorensen), Oxford Economic Papers 52, 584-594, 2000
Subsidising Consumer Services: Effects on Employment, Welfare and the Informal Economy
(with Niels Frederiksen, Peter Hansen & Peter Birch Sorensen), Fiscal Studies 16, 71-93, 1995
Unpublished Manuscripts
A Characteristics Approach to Optimal Taxation and Tax-Driven Product Innovation
(with Joel Slemrod), Working Paper, September 2009
The Optimal Income Taxation of Couples as a Multi-Dimensional Screening Problem
(with Claus Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez), CESifo Working Paper #2092, September 2007
The Taxation of Married Couples in OECD Countries: A Need for Reform?
(with Claus Kreiner), EPRU Working Paper #2002-13, July 2002
NEW Micro vs Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: The Role of Dynamic Returns to Effort
(with Claus Kreiner, Kristian Larsen & Jakob Sogaard), NBER Working Paper #31549, April 2024
NEW Taxing Top Wealth: Migration Responses and their Aggregate Economic Implications
(with Katrine Jakobsen, Jonas Kolsrud, Camille Landais & Mathilde Munoz), NBER Working Paper #32153, February 2024
REVISED The Geography of Child Penalties and Gender Norms: A Pseudo-Event Study Approach
NBER Working Paper #30176, December 2023
| Slides | Replication Files |
Language Trends in Public Economics
Slides, July 2018
| Excel Data File | Press: Bloomberg |
Optimal Income Taxation with Career Effects of Work Effort
(with Michael Best), Working Paper, February 2013
Published Papers
The Child Penalty Atlas
(with Camille Landais & Gabriel Leite-Mariante), Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming
Atlas Website: childpenaltyatlas.org
| NBER Digest | Press: The Economist |
The EITC and the Extensive Margin: A Reappraisal
Journal of Public Economics, forthcoming
| Slides | Replication Files | Tax Rate Series | Press: Vox, The Wall Street Journal |
Do Family Policies Reduce Gender Inequality? Evidence from 60 Years of Policy Experimentation
(with Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimuller), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 16(2), 110-149, 2024
Does Biology Drive Child Penalties? Evidence from Biological and Adoptive Families
(with Camille Landais & Jakob Sogaard), American Economic Review: Insights 3, 183-198, 2021
Sufficient Statistics Revisited
Annual Review of Economics 13, 515-538, 2021
| Slides |
Do People Respond to the Mortgage Interest Deduction? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Denmark
(with Jonathan Gruber & Amalie Sofie Jensen), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13(2), 273-303, 2021
| Press: The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal |
The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis: Evidence From an Immigrant Welfare Scheme in Denmark
(with Ole Agersnap & Amalie Sofie Jensen), American Economic Review: Insights 2, 527-542, 2020
Technology and Big Data Are Changing Economics: Mining Text to Track Methods
(with Janet Currie & Esmée Zwiers), AEA Papers & Proceedings 110, 42-48, 2020
Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications
(with Camille Landais, Mathilde Munoz & Stefanie Stantcheva), Journal of Economic Perspectives 34(2), 119-142, 2020
Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches
(with Michael Best, James Cloyne & Ethan Ilzetzki), Review of Economic Studies 87, 656-690, 2020
Wealth Taxation and Wealth Accumulation: Theory and Evidence from Denmark
(with Katrine Jakobsen, Kristian Jakobsen & Gabriel Zucman), Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, 329-388, 2020
The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach
(with James Cloyne, Kilian Huber & Ethan Ilzetzki), American Economic Review 109, 2104-2136, 2019
| VoxEU |
Child Penalties Across Countries: Evidence and Explanations
(with Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimuller), AEA Papers & Proceedings 109, 122-126, 2019
| VoxEU |
Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark
(with Camille Landais & Jakob Sogaard), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 11, 181-209, 2019
Recipient of the AEJ Best Paper Award 2020
| NBER WP | VoxEU | Press: The New York Times, The Economist, Slate, Vox, Quartz | NETFLIX Documentary |
Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence from Notches and Stimulus in the UK
(with Michael Best), Review of Economic Studies 85, 157–193, 2018
| Slides | Animations | Microeconomic Insights | Press: The Economist |
Gender Inequality and Economic Development: Fertility, Education, and Norms
(with Camille Landais), Economica 84, 180-209, 2017
A Characteristics Approach to Optimal Taxation: Line Drawing and Tax-Driven Product Innovation
(with Christian Gillitzer & Joel Slemrod), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 119, 240–267, 2017
Bunching
Annual Review of Economics 8, 435-464, 2016
| Slides | Technical Note: Reduced-Form Elasticities |
Extrinsic and Intrinsic Motivations for Tax Compliance: Evidence From a Field Experiment in Germany
(with Nadja Dwenger, Imran Rasul & Johannes Rincke), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 8(3), 203-232, 2016
Why Can Modern Governments Tax So Much? An Agency Model of Firms as Fiscal Intermediaries
(with Claus Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez), Economica 83, 219-246, 2016
| NBER WP |
Production vs Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan
(with Michael Best, Anne Brockmeyer, Johannes Spinnewijn & Mazhar Waseem), Journal of Political Economy 123(6), 1311-1355, 2015
| Slides | VoxEU | Microeconomic Insights |
How Can Scandinavians Tax So Much?
Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(4), 77-98, 2014
| Excel Data File | Data & Programs | Press: The New York Times, Financial Times |
Estimating Taxable Income Responses Using Danish Tax Reforms
(with Esben Schultz), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 6(4), 271-301, 2014
Migration and Wage Effects of Taxing Top Earners: Evidence from the Foreigners' Tax Scheme in Denmark
(with Camille Landais, Emmanuel Saez & Esben Schultz), Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, 333-378, 2014
| NBER WP | VoxEU |
Using Notches to Uncover Optimization Frictions and Structural Elasticities: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan
(with Mazhar Waseem), Quarterly Journal of Economics 128, 669-723, 2013
| Technical Note: Reduced-Form Elasticities |
Taxation and International Migration of Superstars: Evidence from the European Football Market
(with Camille Landais & Emmanuel Saez), American Economic Review 103, 1892-1924, 2013
| NBER WP | NBER Digest | Slides | VoxEU | Press: The Economist, Bloomberg, Pacific Standard, The New Republic |
Optimal Tax and Transfer Programs for Couples with Extensive Labor Supply Responses
(with Herwig Immervoll, Claus Kreiner & Nicolaj Verdelin), Journal of Public Economics 95, 1485-1500, 2011
Unwilling or Unable to Cheat? Evidence from a Tax Audit Experiment in Denmark
(with Martin Knudsen, Claus Kreiner, Soren Pedersen & Emmanuel Saez), Econometrica 79, 651-692, 2011
| NBER WP | NBER Digest |
Transfer Program Complexity and the Take Up of Social Benefits
(with Wojciech Kopczuk), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 3(1), 54-90, 2011
The Optimal Income Taxation of Couples
(with Claus Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez), Econometrica 77, 537-560, 2009
Evaluation of Four Tax Reforms in the United States: Labor Supply and Welfare Effects for Single Mothers
(with Nada Eissa & Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 92, 795-816, 2008
| NBER Digest |
Optimal Taxation of Married Couples with Household Production
(with Claus Kreiner), FinanzArchiv 63, 498-518, 2007
Welfare Reform in European Countries: A Microsimulation Analysis
(with Herwig Immervoll, Claus Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez), Economic Journal 117, 1-44, 2007
| Simulation Excel File | EJ Press Release |
The Marginal Cost of Public Funds: Hours of Work vs Labor Force Participation
(with Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 90, 1955-1973, 2006
| CEPR WP |
Welfare Effects of Tax Reform and Labor Supply at the Intensive and Extensive Margins
(with Nada Eissa & Claus Kreiner), in Jonas Agell and Peter Birch Sorensen (eds.), Tax Policy and Labor Market Performance, MIT Press: Cambridge, 147-185, 2006
Labor Supply Behavior and the Design of Tax and Transfer Policy
(with Claus Kreiner), Danish Journal of Economics 143, 321-358, 2005
Optimum Taxation and the Allocation of Time
Journal of Public Economics 88, 545-557, 2004
| EPRU WP |
Labour Tax Reform, The Good Jobs and The Bad Jobs
(with Peter Birch Sorensen), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 106, 45-64, 2004
The Role of Taxes as Automatic Destabilizers in New Keynesian Economics
(with Claus Kreiner), Journal of Public Economics 87, 1123-1136, 2003
Dual Labour Markets and Nominal Rigidity
(with Huw Dixon & Claus Kreiner), Oxford Economic Papers 54, 561-583, 2002
Optimal Taxation with Household Production
(with Wolfram Richter & Peter Birch Sorensen), Oxford Economic Papers 52, 584-594, 2000
Subsidising Consumer Services: Effects on Employment, Welfare and the Informal Economy
(with Niels Frederiksen, Peter Hansen & Peter Birch Sorensen), Fiscal Studies 16, 71-93, 1995
Unpublished Manuscripts
A Characteristics Approach to Optimal Taxation and Tax-Driven Product Innovation
(with Joel Slemrod), Working Paper, September 2009
The Optimal Income Taxation of Couples as a Multi-Dimensional Screening Problem
(with Claus Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez), CESifo Working Paper #2092, September 2007
The Taxation of Married Couples in OECD Countries: A Need for Reform?
(with Claus Kreiner), EPRU Working Paper #2002-13, July 2002